Go to the menu if it is not visible. The task is to identify the main development trend.Enter the sales data in the Excel spreadsheet:On the «DATA» tab click the «Data Analysis» button. The period is for 2012-2015.You need to set the number of periods in the parameters to see the forecast on the chart.After all, there is the exponential dependence in our example. For example, = SQRT(SUMXMY2:(C3:C5 D3:D5)/3).We will compose the forecast of sales using the data from the previous example.We will add a trend line (the right button on the chart - «Add Trend line») on the chart which shows the actual product sales volume.Configure the parameters of the trend line:We choose a polynomial trend that minimizes the error of the forecast model.R2 = 0.9567 which means that this ratio explains 95.67% of changes in sales in process of time.The trend equation is a model of the formula for calculating the forecast values.Most authors recommend using a linear trend line for forecasting sales. Results of the analysis:Excel uses next formula to calculate the standard errors: = SQRT(SUMXMY2('Actual value range' 'range of forecast values') / 'size of the smoothing window'). We tick the «Chart Output», «Standard Errors».Close the dialog box by clicking OK. The program will place the smoothed levels here and the will define size independently.
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